India May Be The Only Country To Fill A Looming Global Supply Gap For Sugar: Report

India's sugar insurance policies - embody massive subsidies

India could be the solely nation in a position to fill a looming world provide hole for sugar because the Brazilian crop ends, making the world's sugar market grateful for the Asian nation that was as soon as considered as a menace to the market's stability.

"Without India filling this gap, from November to March or April, the global sugar market would have a serious problem," stated Paulo Roberto de Souza, the Chief Executive of Alvean Sugar SL, the world's largest sugar dealer.

India's sugar insurance policies, which embody massive subsidies, have been questioned for years on the World Trade Organization by opponents together with Brazil and Australia.

In an interview, Souza stated sugar shopping for is about to extend even because the drought-hit crop in prime grower Brazil winds down and prices for the commodity, in addition to for ocean freight, have elevated sharply.

He stated that sugar consuming international locations have been closely reliant on obtainable shares in the course of the 12 months to keep away from paying excessive transport and sugar values, including that these shares are presently at critically low ranges.

"Now they have no choice," he stated, anticipating a rise on orders available in the market that must be met by Indian producers, however at the next worth.

Sugar costs are close to their highest since early 2017 primarily as a consequence of poor manufacturing in prime grower Brazil following drought and frosts.

Alvean's analysis division doesn't see a lot enchancment in Brazil subsequent season, anticipating a cane crop of round 530 million tonnes and sugar manufacturing at round 32-32.5 million tonnes for the center-south area.

"The fields have suffered a lot and it seems we will have La Nina next year, which means less rain in the center-south," Souza stated.

Alvean tasks the worldwide provide deficit to just about double in 2021/22 (Oct-Sept) from the earlier 12 months to as much as 6 million tonnes, whereas it sees world sugar use rising 1.2 per cent in 2021/22 from 0.7 per cent within the earlier season as international locations additional reopen after the pandemic.

Souza says sugar costs must improve additional to draw sufficient Indian promoting to fill the market's hole.

He says Indian sugar export parity -- the equal to home costs -- is presently round 21 cents per pound, already above New York futures.